Highlights from the Australian market
- AEMO’s 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities shows an improved reliability outlook with gaps not emerging until 2030-31 in NSW and Victoria under the official standard; WattClarity questions whether that improvement is partly an artefact of a contested 2023 methodology change adding 6-12 month buffers before new projects count toward the forecast.
- Chris Bowen has launched Capacity Investment Scheme Tender 11, seeking 1.8GW of wind and solar in WA to help replace coal plants closing by 2029. In spite of this, recent analysis from the ABC shows that only 4 of 31 Capacity Investment Scheme-backed wind projects reaching financial close as construction costs have risen 30-50% since bids were submitted.
- The AER has released its Strategic Plan 2026-2030 with concrete commitments including implementing an effective domestic gas reservation scheme and driving more efficient utilisation of electricity distribution networks.
- National cabinet has resolved that Queensland and the Northern Territory can power new data centres with coal and gas rather than exclusively new renewables, a carve-out from the Albanese Government’s original push for a uniform national standard, with federal legislation now not expected until 2027.
- Victoria has opened its first offshore wind auction, seeking 2GW of capacity across Gippsland and Warrnambool zones (enough for 1.5 million homes), with bids closing August 2027, contracts awarded in 2028, and first power expected in 2035.
- The Australian Renewable Energy Hub has shrunk from a planned 26GW to 15GW, with proponents InterContinental Energy and CWP Global dropping the hydrogen and ammonia export components entirely.
- Oxford Economics forecasts Australian data centre electricity demand will more than triple from 5.1TWh in FY26 to 33.7TWh by FY36 under its central scenario, with NSW and Victoria accounting for over 85% of that load and data centres consuming up to 19% of those states’ grid-supplied electricity by then.
News from Japan
- Paywalled: Kirin has begun producing green hydrogen on-site at one of its beer factories using a 280kW solar array, targeting 70-80 tonnes of hydrogen annually to cover up to 23% of the plant’s heating needs.
- Paywalled: Japan’s grid operator OCCTO has proposed a new “Complementary Auction” within its Capacity Market, run alongside the existing Reserve Power auction, both effectively paying older thermal plants to stay online amid concerns that supply will remain tight through FY2030.
Podcast of the week
Catalyst with Shayle Kann talks to Voya Energy’s Richard Wang about replacing diesel backup generators with an electrochemical generator that produces electricity from aluminium pellets and air.