Endgame’s quarterly Price Projection delivers a rigorous outlook on the National Electricity Market (NEM), modelling price and dispatch outcomes across a 25-year horizon. Our central scenario for the NEM anticipates a delayed energy transition, shaped by sustained headwinds to renewable construction and a laggard exit of coal-fired generation. Our suite of alternative scenarios explores a spectrum of market dynamics, ranging from a trajectory aligned with government policy targets to one constrained by highly restrictive wind-build rates.
NEM and WEM modelling.
Two markets.
One standard of rigour.
NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET
NEM
WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY MARKET
WEM
In the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM), Endgame offers a premium subscription that provides a considered, in-house perspective on the system’s evolution through to 2050. Drawing on detailed modelling of both Real Time Market and Reserve Capacity Mechanism outcomes across Capacity Years 2026 to 2050, our half-yearly service examines price trajectories, capacity adequacy, and the changing generation mix under a suite of distinct scenarios, refreshed every six months to reflect the latest market dynamics.
Premium Service:
Quarterly Updates.
Our premium quarterly service delivers energy market outcomes across an extensive range of scenarios out to 2050.
Alongside the results, we provide the underlying data for you to conduct independent analysis and draw your own conclusions. This includes summary-level outputs as well as granular results such as half-hourly prices, generation, emissions, and interconnector data in CSV format.
Each quarter you receive:
1
Modelling results data.
- Half-hourly price, emissions, line flow and generation data by technology and asset
- A user-friendly summary workbook aggregating critical metrics for analysis
2
Comprehensive report.
- A deep dive into the latest market updates, their impact on prices and dispatch, and key analysis on the future of the NEM
- Detailed quarter-on-quarter updates to underlying assumptions, prices and dispatch outcomes
3
Platform access.
- Interactive charts to gather the most relevant insights for market participants
- Downloadable data sets detailing each self-produced chart
- A full suite of assumptions underlying all scenarios
Bi-annual public seminars.
Our biannual seminar tackles a single timely issue shaping Australia’s energy market. Held across capital cities, each session draws on our in-house modelling, market expertise and deep sector knowledge to surface insights that feed directly into our regular Price Projections. Recent seminars include Valuing Assets in a Highly Volatile World, examining how the shift to a weather-dependent system erodes revenue certainty, and Boom or Bust, which weighed the business case for longer-duration storage against the messy economics that so often define short-duration assets.
NEM Volatility package.
Price projections tell you where the market is heading. The NEM Volatility package tells you how wide the range really is.The Volatility Package extends our NEM Fundamentals package, converting a single central price forecast into a comprehensive distribution of possible outcomes. To build that distribution, we model 13 weather reference years across 5 demand scales and run each combination through our central, high and low scenarios, generating a broad set of sensitivities for every case.
This gives market participants a probabilistic view of the market, one that captures the full spread of conditions from high-renewable, low-price periods to low-generation, high-price events. It forms the basis for robust risk management, letting clients stress-test their portfolios against an increasingly weather-dependent system and the uncertainty surrounding demand forecasts.
Your subscription includes:
Half-hourly price data
Across every sensitivity run for independent analysis
Interactive workbook
Summarising the full spectrum of outcomes visually
expert briefing
Commentary on volatility dynamics and what drives tall events