The road to net zero will need to include Australia’s freight task and the economics are shifting fast.
Endgame Analytics is pleased to share the second instalment of our decarbonising transport research series, this time focusing on road freight and the commercial viability of battery electric trucks (BETs) for long-haul operations.
We modelled a B-double trip between Brisbane and Sydney and found that BETs are closer to cost parity with diesel incumbents than conventional wisdom suggests.
Some key highlights:
- Cost savings are real: Off-peak charging delivers a 6% cost reduction compared to diesel, while even peak charging brings the BET to within 1% of the diesel equivalent.
- Distance matters: Cost parity is achieved at around 700 km per day under our baseline assumptions — and falls to under 300 km if diesel prices sustain above $3 per litre.
- Capital is less of a barrier than you’d think: The unit cost per tonne-kilometre is relatively insensitive to the upfront price premium of the BET, as long travel distances amortise the higher acquisition cost effectively.
- But structural barriers remain: Charging infrastructure gaps, fatigue regulation misalignment, and a fragmented operator market mean commercial viability alone won’t drive the transition. Coordinated government action is needed.
The convergence of the electricity and transport sectors creates a genuine opportunity. Operators who engage actively with energy market dynamics through strategic charging and vehicle-to-grid participation stand to benefit most.
Read the full paper here
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Endgame Analytics are helping clients navigate these interactions between policy, technology, and economic strategy.
- Martin Chow, Director (Endgame Analytics) | E: martin.chow@endgameanalytics.com.au
- Isaac Mann, Consultant (Endgame Analytics) | E: isaac.mann@endgameanalytics.com.au