{"id":995,"date":"2026-01-13T07:33:04","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T07:33:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/?p=995"},"modified":"2026-01-13T07:33:54","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T07:33:54","slug":"eternal-sunshine-recent-and-projected-patterns-in-solar-performance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/ja\/eternal-sunshine-recent-and-projected-patterns-in-solar-performance\/","title":{"rendered":"Eternal sunshine \u2013 recent and projected patterns in solar performance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have seen solar and batteries at the core of government schemes over the last year, and indeed further back in time. In addition, the Commonwealth has sought to make the most of solar resources by encouraging consumption during the middle of the day with its Solar Sharer Offer. And finally with the challenges facing the roll-out of wind, gas and pumped hydro projects, we are left in a world where many of our clients have said to us that solar is the only option for investment. Against this backdrop, we ask the question how hungry is our current market for solar, and what can we learn about the returns that solar will earn from the energy only market?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Average prices in 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a starting point, we examine historical average prices for the mainland regions of the National Electricity Market (NEM). Figure 1 shows that 2025 prices were lower in all regions than 2024 prices but have risen from their levels in 2023. New South Wales experienced the highest average price of $103 per MWh, with Victoria the lowest at $77.9 per MWh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Figure 1 \u2013 Average calendar year prices for mainland regions of the NEM, 2000-2025<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-1024x632.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-996\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-1024x632.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-768x474.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image.jpg 1208w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Average prices for different periods of the day<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Average prices are a good starting point to understand the returns to solar, but the marked feature of prices over the last decade has been the deepening duck curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figure 2 shows the average dispatch price by time of day for Victoria in 2025. We have coloured the different times of day according to solar output during these periods, namely:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Solar hours, which are 8 am to 4 pm.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Solar shoulder hours, which are 6 am to 8 am and 4 pm to 6 pm.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Overnight periods, from 6 pm to 6 am.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The belly of the duck (ie, the solar hours) is markedly lower than the shoulder and overnight periods, as has been seen for some time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Figure 2 \u2013 2025 average Victoria prices by time of day, coloured by solar definition<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-2-1024x632.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-998\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-2-1024x632.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-2-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-2-768x474.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-2.jpg 1208w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An immediate question is how prices for each of these time periods have changed over time with the increasing penetration of solar. Figure 3 shows the Victoria quarterly average price for each of the three categories: solar hours, solar shoulder, and overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We note the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Over the period from 2010 to 2020, overnight and solar periods experienced very similar outcomes, but from 2021 onwards there has been a marked divergence between solar and overnight periods.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prices for solar hours have collapsed in recent years and have now often become negative on average for entire quarters, namely Q4 2023, Q4 2024 and Q4 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is a clear quarterly pattern emerging with the highest prices in Q2 and Q3.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Figure 3 \u2013 Victoria quarterly average prices by solar category, 2010 to 2025<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4-1024x632.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1000\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4-1024x632.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4-768x474.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4.jpg 1208w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bringing revenue into the equation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Average price is a very helpful indicator of the available pie for solar, but if we want to look more deeply at returns it is necessary to incorporate dispatch volumes, which vary greatly over the course of the year. With that in mind, Figure 4 shows the monthly revenue and generation by solar category for all solar farms in Victoria for 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We note the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>38 per cent of all revenue is earned in the solar shoulder, with the remainder coming from solar hours.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Counterintuitively, the vast majority (ie, 90 per cent) of revenue from solar periods is earned winter when output from solar is at its lowest. Indeed, revenue from solar periods was negative during Q4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The relationship between generation and revenue is not straightforward \u2013 more generation does not necessarily lead to more revenue, because when we generate during the year matters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Figure &nbsp;4 \u2013 Revenue and generation across all solar units in Victoria by solar category<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"633\" src=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-1-1024x633.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-997\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-1-1024x633.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-1-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-1-768x475.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-1.jpg 1205w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Looking to the future \u2013 solar earns the bulk of its revenue in winter<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We can also project forward to see how the system will evolve using one of our house scenarios, ie, Endgame\u2019s Sunny Side Up Scenario. Figure 5 shows average Victoria revenue per MW for three financial years by month and solar category for this case.&nbsp; We project that the pattern of the increasing significance of winter continues \u2013 indeed, by 2039-40 our modelling shows that solar will earn virtually nothing from September to March save for the small amount of output during the solar shoulders. In addition, the relative importance of the shoulder decreases from around 30 per cent of revenue to 16.5 per cent by FY2040.<em><br><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Figure 5 \u2013 Projected Victoria solar revenue per MW; FY2030, FY2035, FY2040<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-3-1024x632.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-999\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-3-1024x632.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-3-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-3-768x474.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.endgameanalytics.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-3.jpg 1208w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does this mean?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Solar revenues in summer have collapsed. Solar must now justify itself through contribution to the system during winter, particularly when the system is becalmed, ie, when wind output is low. Even with the large amounts of batteries that are projected to enter the system, this outcome does not change. The success of solar, and particularly rooftop solar, has led to a world where the system will be awash with energy in summer and so the marginal value of the technology is greatest when its output is relatively low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We conclude with the following observations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Solar earns most of its money when it is operating at a relatively low proportion of nameplate capacity. It follows that any curtailment which occurs during summer may be largely irrelevant to the overall revenue of a site.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Financiers need to be comfortable that they are buying an asset that makes most of its money when it is generating well beneath its capacity. Our own modelling shows that large proportions of solar revenue may come from periods where it is generating at less than 30 per cent of nameplate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The massively seasonal nature of solar revenue makes a strong case for seasonal storage of any form of energy. Technologies that can move megawatt-hours between seasons will be extremely valuable in this context.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Given the large amount of variability in the occurrence and frequency of wind droughts from one year to the next, it follows that solar spot revenue will be incredible volatile. This is borne out by our own analysis of outcomes for different weather reference years. Batteries cannot mitigate this risk \u2013 deeper forms of energy storage and gas are required to hedge load.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a id=\"_msocom_1\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We have seen solar and batteries at the core of government schemes over the last year, and indeed further back in time. In addition, the Commonwealth has sought to make the most of solar resources by encouraging consumption during the middle of the day with its Solar Sharer Offer. And finally with the challenges facing the roll-out of wind, gas and pumped hydro projects, we are left in a world where many of our clients have said to us that solar is the only option for investment. Against this backdrop, we ask the question how hungry is our current market for solar, and what can we learn about the returns [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8,25],"tags":[42,36,54,32,27,37,35,33,31,39,28,43,38,56,41],"topic":[15],"industry":[20],"class_list":["post-995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","category-blog","tag-assumptions","tag-beginner","tag-carbon","tag-electricity","tag-energy","tag-guide","tag-market","tag-modelling","tag-nem","tag-power","tag-prices","tag-renewable","tag-system","tag-technology","tag-weather","topic-analysis","industry-energy"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.9 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We have seen solar and batteries at the core of government schemes over the last year, and indeed further back in time. 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